The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. predicted on Sept. 22 that over the next 20 years China will have a total demand for 4,700 new aircraft with a combined market value of 500 billion U.S. dollars based on the 2011 price catalogue, which accounts for 15 percent of the global demand.
 
By 2030, the company predicts the volume of Chinese passenger airplanes, which currently accounts for 9 percent of the world passenger airplane fleet, will approach 15 percent, or 5,400.

It is anticipated that the annual growth rate of the passenger volume in the next 20 years will be 7.4 percent, and the annual growth rate in the number of passenger planes will be 6.2 percent. Due to their geographic advantages, the regions of Xinjiang and Yunan, neighboring Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and Southeast Asia will also drive the development of aviation in the western region of China.

The development of Hainan as an international tourism island and the enforcement of the Hainan islands shopping exemption policy will boost the Hainan air transport industry. Because of the increasing number of mainland students who study in Taiwan and the free and independent travel policy to Taiwan, direct flights across the Straits will continue to rise.

In the short run, the domestic airplane passenger volume in the next five year is expected to slightly decline because of competition with high-speed rail. But in a long view, the number of air passengers will grow continuously in sync with the developing Chinese economy. 
 

 
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